Fractional–Order Modeling and Control of COVID-19 with Shedding Effect

A fractional order COVID-19 model consisting of six compartments in Caputo sense is constructed. The indirect transmission of the virus through susceptible populations by the shedding effect is studied. Equilibrium solutions are calculated, and basic reproduction ratio (that depends both on direct and indirect mode of transmission), existence and uniqueness, as well as stability analysis of the solution of the model, are studied. The paper studies the effect of optimal control policy applied to shedding effect. The control is the observation of standard hygiene practices and chemical disinfectants in public spaces. Numerical simulations are carried out to support the analytic result and to show the significance of the fractional order from the biological viewpoint.

Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A modeling analysis with high-and-moderate risk populations.

Nigeria is second to South Africa with the highest reported cases of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we employ an SEIR-based compartmental model to study and analyze the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in Nigeria. The model incorporates different group of populations (that is, high- and- moderate risk populations) and is use to investigate the influence on each population on the overall transmission dynamics.The model, which is fitted well to the data, is qualitatively analyzed to evaluate the impacts of different schemes for controlstrategies. Mathematical analysis reveals that the model has two equilibria; i.e., disease-free equilibrium (DFE) which is local asymptotic stability (LAS) if the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) is less than 1; and unstable for R 0 > 1 , and an endemic equilibrium (EE) which is globally asymptotic stability (LAS) whenever R 0 > 1 . Furthermore, we find that the model undergoes a phenomenon of backward bifurcation (BB, a coexistence of stable DFE and stable EE even if the R 0 < 1 ). We employ Partial Rank Correlation coefficients (PRCCs) for sensitivity analyses to evaluate the model's parameters. Our results highlight that proper surveillance, especially movement of individuals from high risk to moderate risk population, testing, as well as imposition of other NPIs measures are vital strategies for mitigating the COVID-19 epidemic in Nigeria. Besides, in the absence of an exact solution for the proposed model, we solve the model with the well-known ODE45 numerical solver and the effective numerical schemes such as Euler (EM), Runge-Kutta of order 2 (RK-2), and Runge-Kutta of order 4 (RK-4) in order to establish approximate solutions and to show the physical features of the model. It has been shown that these numerical schemes are very effective and efficient to establish superb approximate solutions for differential equations.